VII. Die Valutaregulierung in Oesterreich Ungarn

[Introduction and the Political Landscape of Currency Reform]: Carl Menger analyzes the political and expert landscape regarding the regulation of the Austro-Hungarian currency. He notes that while currency commissions largely favored the gold standard, bimetallism retains significant support within parliamentary bodies, particularly among agrarian interests and influential political factions like the Polish party. Menger suggests that bimetallists may focus on preventing a form of the gold standard that would preclude future bimetallic options rather than immediate implementation of their full program. [The Impracticability of National and International Bimetallism]: Menger critiques the feasibility of both national and international bimetallism. He argues that a national double standard would likely collapse into a de facto silver standard due to market fluctuations and the fixed legal ratio. Regarding international bimetallism, he reviews the history of failed monetary conferences (1878, 1881, 1889) and expresses skepticism about its practical realization, warning that artificial attempts to fix the gold-silver ratio could threaten the stability of money's value and lead to inflation. [The Economic Necessity of the Gold Standard]: Menger argues that the gold standard is the necessary choice for economically advanced nations. He describes gold as the 'money of advanced ages,' offering superior convenience for large transactions and facilitating international trade. He posits that remaining on a silver standard would economically isolate Austria-Hungary, as gold has become the 'world money' while silver is relegated to second-order nations. Despite potential risks, he concludes that the transition to gold is the only viable path for serious currency reform. [The Appreciation of Gold and Global Production Trends]: Menger addresses the primary concern regarding the gold standard: the rising value (appreciation) of gold. He provides statistical data on gold production from 1886 to 1891, noting a recovery from the lows of the mid-1880s. However, he highlights the significant shift in the gold-silver ratio since 1871, indicating a 54% increase in the price of gold relative to silver. He warns that the increasing demand for gold for currency purposes, including Austria-Hungary's own reform, exerts upward pressure on gold's value, which could impact general price levels. [Calculating the Gold Requirements for Austro-Hungarian Reform]: Menger provides a detailed breakdown of the current and projected money circulation in Austria-Hungary to estimate the gold required for the transition. He accounts for banknotes, state notes, and various forms of subsidiary coinage (silver, nickel, copper). He estimates the total demand for circulation media at 950-1000 million florins. He then presents three scenarios for the gold requirement (ranging from 345,000 to 390,000 kg of gold) depending on how much paper money and silver remains in circulation alongside the new gold currency. [Szenarien der Golddeckung und der aktuelle Goldbestand]: Menger presents a fourth scenario for currency regulation involving 60 million state treasury notes and 100 million silver florins. He calculates the total gold requirement at 320,000 kg and assesses the current domestic gold holdings in the Austro-Hungarian Bank and state treasuries to determine the amount needed from foreign markets. [Die voraussichtliche Rückwirkung der Valutareform auf den Goldwert]: An analysis of how the Austro-Hungarian currency reform might impact global gold prices. Menger argues that withdrawing a significant portion of the world's monetary gold will likely lead to an appreciation of gold's value, drawing comparisons with the German monetary reform and citing statistics from Haupt, Soetbeer, and Leech. [Vorbeugungsmittel gegen die Goldsteigerung und internationale Kooperation]: Menger discusses strategies to mitigate the negative effects of gold appreciation, emphasizing the importance of the 'relations question' (the exchange rate for the transition). He advocates for international agreements to allow silver circulation and credit instruments to reduce the pressure on gold, criticizing bimetallism while supporting pragmatic international cooperation. [Zeitpunkt der Relationsfeststellung und Schlussfolgerungen]: Menger suggests delaying the final decision on the currency relation until gold purchases are completed to avoid market disruption. He concludes that while the transition to a gold standard is necessary, it must be done with extreme caution, ensuring sufficient gold reserves are secured before resuming cash payments. [Die hinkende Goldwährung und die Rolle des Silbers]: A detailed examination of the 'limping gold standard' (hinkende Goldwährung). Menger defends the inclusion of a limited amount of silver currency alongside gold, arguing against 'gold fanatics' who demand a pure standard. He references the stability of the Austrian paper currency and the experiences of Germany and France to show that limited silver circulation does not necessarily damage national credit. [Silberbestände, Scheidemünzen und die praktische Umsetzung]: Menger analyzes the existing silver stocks in Austria-Hungary and the requirements for small coinage (Scheidemünze). He argues against excessive silver coinage, proposing instead that a portion of the silver surplus be used as 'Courantsilber' linked to treasury notes to prevent market disruption and ensure a manageable money supply.