Dating postwar business cycles methods and their application to Western

[Front Matter and NBER Organizational Structure]: Title page, publication details, and the organizational structure of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as of 1969. Includes lists of officers, directors at large, university directors, and senior research staff, as well as the formal resolution governing the publication of research reports. [Acknowledgements and Table of Contents]: Acknowledgements of contributors and a detailed table of contents listing chapters, tables, and charts. The study focuses on dating business cycles in West Germany from 1950-1967 using deviation and step cycle methods. [Foreword by Geoffrey H. Moore]: Geoffrey Moore introduces the concept of the 'unseen' cycle—the distribution of expansions and contractions within aggregate economic activity. He explains how Ilse Mintz applies this to the postwar West German economy, where traditional 'seen' cycles (absolute declines) were absent but growth rate fluctuations persisted. The foreword discusses the historical development of trend-adjustment methods and the implications of these new chronologies for economic analysis and policy. [The Definition of the Business Cycle Revisited]: Mintz re-evaluates the definition of business cycles in the context of postwar stability. She distinguishes between the 'classical' cycle (absolute decline in activity) and the 'growth cycle' (alternations between high and low growth rates). She argues that even without absolute declines, the German economy exhibits cyclical behavior that is perceived as 'recessionary' by policy makers and the public when growth slows. The section establishes the theoretical basis for using trend-adjusted data to identify 'speedups' and 'slowdowns'. [Methods of Dating Business Cycles and German Indicators]: This section details the methodology for establishing a business cycle chronology. Mintz explains the preference for using multiple indicators over a single aggregate like GNP to reduce error. She describes the selection of twenty-one German indicators (monthly and quarterly) and the necessity of seasonal adjustment using the Census X-11 method. The criteria for cycle duration and the challenges of data consistency in postwar Germany (including the integration of the Saarland and West Berlin) are discussed. [Deviation Cycles and the Computerized Selection of Turns]: Mintz describes the first of two primary methods: deviation cycles. This involves adjusting indicators for long-run trends using a seventy-five-month moving average. She introduces an objective, computerized method developed by Bry and Boschan for identifying cyclical turns. The process involves a stepwise approach using twelve-month moving averages, Spencer curves, and short-term moving averages to isolate cyclical maxima and minima in seasonally adjusted data. [Step Cycles and Growth Rate Analysis]: The second method, step cycles, focuses on growth rates rather than the series levels. Mintz explains that because growth rates peak early in expansions, they cannot be used directly to date cycles; instead, cycles are defined as alternations between 'high' and 'low' growth steps. Following the work of Friedman and Schwartz, she utilizes a computerized partition method that maximizes the variance between step means to identify turning points between speedup and slowdown phases. [Establishing the German Business Cycle Chronology]: Mintz synthesizes the indicator data into a single business cycle chronology for West Germany. She employs a diffusion index—measuring the percentage of indicators in expansion—to determine reference turning points. The results from deviation cycles and step cycles are compared, showing high consensus. She ultimately selects the deviation cycle chronology for its superior smoothness. The section includes Table 2, which compares turning points across different methods and subsamples. [Comparison of Individual Indicators and International Timing]: An analysis of the timing of individual indicators relative to the German business cycle. Mintz finds that most indicators coincide roughly with the cycle, while stock prices and imports of semimanufactures lead, and wages and prices tend to lag. She compares these findings with U.S. data, noting a striking similarity in the ordering and magnitude of leads and lags between the two economies, despite different institutional contexts. [Data Tables: Leads and Lags of German Indicators]: Comprehensive tables (Tables 3 and 4) providing the specific leads and lags in months for twenty-one German indicators at each business cycle turn from 1950 to 1967. The tables cover both deviation cycles (DC) and step cycles (SC), providing mean and median timing statistics and average deviations from reference turns. [Classical German Business Cycles and Comparison with Other Findings]: Mintz applies classical (non-trend adjusted) analysis to the German data, finding that no classical recessions occurred between 1950 and 1966, with the first appearing in 1966-67. She compares her chronology with findings from other sources, including the Wharton Index of Capacity Utilization, the OECD, and the Deutsche Bundesbank. The section validates Mintz's 'speedup/slowdown' dates against the qualitative observations of contemporary German economic analysts. [Summary and Appendix A Notes]: Concluding summary of the study's findings. Mintz identifies three and a half business cycles in West Germany between 1951 and 1967, with an average duration of roughly five years. She notes that while German cycles are longer than postwar U.S. classical cycles, they are shorter than pre-WWII German cycles. The section concludes with technical notes for the charts in Appendix A. [Technical Notes on Turning Points and Chart Plotting]: Brief technical notes explaining the selection of turning points in clusters and the visual artifacts produced by computer plotting equipment in the following charts. [Appendix A: Charts of German Economic Indicators (A-1 to A-21)]: A comprehensive collection of charts (A-1 through A-21) depicting various German economic indicators from 1950 to 1967. Each chart typically includes seasonally adjusted data, deviations from moving averages, and rates of change to illustrate cyclical behavior in sectors such as labor, national income, production, and trade. [Appendix A: Basic Seasonally Adjusted Data Charts (A-22 to A-26)]: Charts A-22 through A-26 providing the basic seasonally adjusted monthly and quarterly data for the indicators analyzed in the study, covering employment, GNP, income, production, prices, and imports. [Appendix B: Basic Data Tables and Sources of German Indicators]: General notes for Appendix B detailing the data sources and geographical coverage for the German indicators. It explains the inclusion of Saarland and West Berlin, definitions of 'Industry' and 'Manufacturing', and the treatment of seasonal adjustments and revisions. [General Sources and Bibliography]: A comprehensive list of general sources and statistical publications used for the study of German business cycles, including reports from the Deutsche Bundesbank, DIW Berlin, IFO Institut, OECD, and the German Federal Statistical Office. [Statistical Tables: Employment, Man-Hours, and Unemployment]: Detailed monthly statistical tables (B1-B4) covering labor market indicators in West Germany from 1950 to 1967. Includes seasonally adjusted and original data for manufacturing employment, total man-hours, registered unemployment, and job vacancies, with specific notes on the inclusion of West Berlin and Saarland. [Statistical Tables: National Accounts and Income]: Quarterly statistical tables (B5-B12) presenting West German national accounts data from 1950 to 1967. Covers GNP in current and constant prices, investment components (equipment, construction, inventories), and various measures of income including employee net income, disposable income, and property/entrepreneurial profits. [Statistical Tables: Production, Sales, Prices, and Trade]: Monthly statistical tables (B13-B20) detailing industrial performance and market indicators. Includes indices for total industrial production, investment goods production, manufacturing wages, domestic sales, producer prices, stock market indices, and imports of raw materials and semimanufactures from 1950 to 1967. [Subject and Author Index]: A detailed alphabetical index for the entire work, mapping key concepts, indicators, and authors to page numbers. Key entries include classical business cycles, deviation cycles, step cycles, turning points, and references to major economists like Burns, Mitchell, and Moore.