Karlheinz Muhr Library

The Complete “Austrian School of Economics” Collection


© 2026 Karlheinz Muhr Library·Conceptualized, designed & built bykrin.ai↗
Karlheinz Muhr Library
ArchiveTimelineLibrarian
Sign in

The archive.

1,549 works, 150 years of economic thought. Each one summarized and searchable, with cited passages inside.

▾··Arranged by ,
1–1 of 1 matches · 1,549 works totalPage 1 of 1; every summary opens into its work.
  1. 1970
    Predictability of Stock Market Prices

    Predictability of Stock Market Prices

    Clive W. J. Granger and Oskar Morgenstern · 114 sections

    Strip a share of its metaphysics and nothing intrinsic remains—only a valuation sustained transaction by transaction. From that deflationary premise Granger and Morgenstern mount an empirical assault on market folklore, insisting first that 'prediction' be defined before it is tested. Deploying spectral analysis across daily, weekly, and monthly series, they find price changes broadly following a random walk—not because the future is unknowable, but because past prices yield no usable linear forecast. The book's discipline lies in its distinctions: absolute price versus relative movement, direction versus magnitude. Volume, they show, says nothing about whether a stock will rise or fall, yet tracks the size of its swings. Optimal-allocation claims, seasonal cycles, and profitable filter rules fall in turn.

    The value of a stock is only what someone else will pay for it — in cash, in another stock or whatever it may be.