3,801 works, 471 books, 3,267 articles, 60 other works, 3 awaiting classification, 150 years of economic thought. Each one summarized and searchable, with cited passages inside.
Shackle opposes reason to imagination and probability to poetry, without discarding knowledge: business policy, he argues, is an originative art conducted under radical uncertainty, not the solving of a well-posed problem. He builds a scale of openness from dice and cards, which yield a complete list of outcomes, through horse-racing to new enterprise, which has no card of runners and no book of rules. Decision is commitment to a future that does not yet exist, and therefore choice among imagined possibilities rather than known facts. Where probability demands an exhaustive list of contingencies, he substitutes judgments of possibility, surprise, and ascendancy, with focus-gain and focus-loss standing for an enterprise in deliberation. Success, he concludes, needs not only the axial mind that reasons toward a solution but the radial imagination that sees outward into an expanding field of possible histories.
My first proposition is that decision is choice amongst the products of imagination.
One unfinished project links Keynes's Treatise on Money and his General Theory: the attempt to make economics adequate to a future no agent can know. Shackle finds the sharpest tool not in the General Theory but in the Treatise's Fundamental Equations, which he reads as rudimentary sequence analysis—income as anticipated cost, profit as the gap between what was expected and what occurred. From this ex ante/ex post distinction he rebuilds liquidity preference and the marginal efficiency of capital as phenomena of speculative markets, confidence, and mood, not as stable schedules. Economic life becomes kaleidic: neither a march toward equilibrium nor a regular cycle, but a succession of temporary patterns that shifting expectations can shatter in an instant, leaving resources idle as asset-holders retreat into liquidity.
Income, in the Fundamental Equations, is a conjecture which can be wrong.
Thought is the only thing directly known, and its passing is the raw experience from which time itself is abstracted—an unlikely starting point for a theory of choice, and a deliberate one. Shackle builds from it a critique of deterministic economics: if choice genuinely matters, it must be a beginning, an uncaused cause, a taking-place not already implicit in its antecedents, and its sequels cannot be a ready-made list waiting to be ranked. Possibility, for the chooser, becomes the absence of discernible fatal obstacles rather than a measurable frequency; commitment, not calculation, is the vital act, staking self-esteem on imagined outcomes. Marshalling potential surprise, ascendancy, and focus-gain against frequency probability, he makes investment the exemplary economic act—a symbolic wager on a future whose outcomes can never be exhaustively listed.
Possibility, for the chooser, is the absence of discernible fatal obstacles.
The alternatives among which a person chooses are creations of his own thought, not a menu the world hands down — and from that premise Shackle builds this compact statement of subjectivist economics, written to introduce Alexander Shand's survey of the tradition from Plato to Hayek. Choice becomes creative rather than calculative, its consequences unknowable in advance, so that the future is not merely unknown but partly made. Non-determinism and the unpredictability of history-to-come follow, along with a political corollary: central coercion cannot render human affairs predictable, only extinguish the dispersed invention that renews economic life. Markets earn their place by disseminating knowledge after events occur, never by abolishing uncertainty.
Subjectivism credits the individual with the power of the alchemist who can throw into his crucible whatever his fancy has invented but knows not what will emerge.