The archive.

Strip a system of its outer layers and something eventually gives way, not gradually but all at once. Morgenstern's essay builds a vocabulary for that threshold, introducing compressibility, the selective reduction of an economy or organization that preserves its defining function, against the kernel, the minimal core below which the thing ceases to be what it was. He resists the picture of total connectedness implied by input-output schemes read as if every cell were indispensable, since such a system would collapse at the first loss. Real economies, armies, and bureaucracies instead shed activities, reorganize, and substitute; war, scarcity, and damage reveal cores that abundance ordinarily hides. Part II turns to economic constants, denying that economics has physics-like constants while insisting on firmer physiological and technological bounds, from caloric minimums to reproduction times, beneath the shifting surface of prices.

A system will be said to be totally connected if the destruction of any of its parts destroys the whole system, i. e., deprives it of all of its functions.

Strip a share of its metaphysics and nothing intrinsic remains—only a valuation sustained transaction by transaction. From that deflationary premise Granger and Morgenstern mount an empirical assault on market folklore, insisting first that 'prediction' be defined before it is tested. Deploying spectral analysis across daily, weekly, and monthly series, they find price changes broadly following a random walk—not because the future is unknowable, but because past prices yield no usable linear forecast. The book's discipline lies in its distinctions: absolute price versus relative movement, direction versus magnitude. Volume, they show, says nothing about whether a stock will rise or fall, yet tracks the size of its swings. Optimal-allocation claims, seasonal cycles, and profitable filter rules fall in turn.

The value of a stock is only what someone else will pay for it — in cash, in another stock or whatever it may be.

"Optimum" sounds like a clear concept and is nothing of the sort. Responding as a discussant to Abram Bergson and Jan Tinbergen, Morgenstern presses two objections that unsettle the confident vocabulary of welfare planning. First, productivity, so intelligible for physical output, becomes one of the weakest ideas in economics once services dominate national income, leaving comparisons across systems on shakier ground than they claim. Second, an optimum invoked rhetorically is not an optimum proven to exist, and recent theory had produced cases where none does. From there he argues that society cannot in principle be fully formalized, that imposed equality raises the unanswered question of what keeps equal incomes equal, and that identical physical circumstances can sustain rival stable orders. Choosing among them, he concludes, is an ethical and political act, not a scientific result.

There is no scientific reason why one system should be preferred over the other.

Forecasting the future balance of power tempts planners to mistake projection for knowledge, and this collaborative study sets out to discipline the temptation. Morgenstern, Knorr, and Heiss treat power as a composite of economic capacity, technological change, military organization, and political will, elements that resist extrapolation to very different degrees. Engineering development can be projected within wide error bounds; decisive scientific breakthroughs cannot. They dissect the methods of the day, from the Delphi technique and Wilhelm Fucks's physics-styled power indices to Kahn and Wiener's scenarios and the Limits to Growth simulation, faulting each for suppressing the historical turning points that dominate real outcomes. Energy dependence emerges as their one firm warning, leaving Japan and Western Europe strategically exposed, while China's trajectory hinges on unpredictable political persistence. Armed force, they insist, becomes power only through the will to use it.

Our work has impressed us with the inherent difficulties of forecasting although we realize that objects of forecasting vary greatly in their conjecturability.

When John von Neumann published his expanding-economy model in 1937, he gave economics one of its rare transformative events. Morgenstern and Thompson build on it here, synthesizing two decades of work into the KMT model, which removes von Neumann's restrictive assumption that every good figures in every process and admits multiple expansion rates, subeconomies, and game-theoretic solution methods. Across fourteen chapters they extend the framework to open economies that import and export at world prices, to consumption and savings, to trading blocks and a world model bound by a common expansion rate, and, pointedly, to contraction and compression, since resource limits make endless growth no longer self-evidently desirable. Throughout, they insist the models apply to any economy regardless of political organization, deliberately omit money and stochastic elements, and treat expansion, stationarity, and collapse as problems of structure, optimization, and computable linear programming.

Behind Theory of Games and Economic Behavior lay a convergence of two unfinished programs. In this memoir, Morgenstern retraces the path from his 1928 work on economic forecasting, where the distinction between "dead" and "live" variables already anticipated strategic interaction and the Sherlock Holmes and Moriarty chase exposed the paradoxes of perfect foresight, to a Princeton encounter he describes as an instantaneous meeting of minds. What began as a short explanatory article grew, through walks and longhand collaboration, into a book that axiomatized expected utility, deployed minimax reasoning, and turned to convexity after his discovery of Jean Ville's proof. He recounts the Vienna Circle background, von Neumann's expanding-economy model, wartime printing by Princeton University Press, and the reviews and translations that followed, an origin story of game theory that doubles as a memorial to a friendship.

We did an enormous amount of work in a very short time, but it was unceasing pleasure and never a time of drudgery.

A firm, an army, a university, a logistics system: none can be understood as a mere sum of its inputs, because their capacities depend on arrangements of authority, information, timing, and control. Morgenstern's unfinished RAND memorandum clears the ground for a future quantitative theory of organization, arguing that economics has treated the firm as a black box and lacked even a descriptive language for what happens inside it. He builds one, distinguishing inner from outer activity, defining operations as chosen sequences of acts, and replacing organic metaphors with "competences," units delegated authority to set variables within domains. Signals activate them, memory sustains them, control counters the drift toward disorder. Written in 1951, the memorandum anticipates cybernetics, information theory, operations research, and bounded rationality, insisting that careful phenomenological description must precede any premature axiomatization.

Organization in itself, wherever it occurs, whether in social or natural life, is something exceptional and extraordinary.

Economic theory cannot tell a government which ends to pursue, since those belong to value and politics, yet no rational policy is possible without it. From this double thesis Morgenstern develops the "application problem" at the heart of his 1934 study, reprinted here in the original German: because economics lacks physics-like constants and works through shifting relations, every intervention rests on contested theoretical beliefs about cause and effect. He shows how policy effects scatter unevenly, concentrated and visible losses outweighing dispersed future gains, so organized producers systematically outmaneuver diffuse consumers. Since measures interlock through the price system, the only value-free scientific principle he can offer is consistency, freedom from contradiction. Drawing on Böhm-Bawerk, he treats power as widening the zone of indeterminacy rather than abolishing economic law, and closes with a withering account of the "Vulgärökonomie" of slogans and patent remedies.

Eine flackernde Fackel ist völliger Finsternis vorzuziehen.

English translation: “A flickering torch is preferable to complete darkness.”